Blank sails set to rise on Asia-NAWC

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Blank sails set to rise on Asia-NAWC

Sea-Intelligence has observed a sharp capacity growth for the 2025 Chinese New Year (CNY) period on Asia – North America West Coast.

Despite the trend, this sharp growth cannot be explained by any current demand growth factors, according to Sea-Intelligence.

The current capacity deployment for the 4-week CNY period in 2025 stands at just under 1.34 million TEUs, marking the highest level in the analysed period. This figure surpasses even the high-demand period of 2021, representing a 33.3 per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) increase and a 34.1 per cent growth compared to the 2016-2019 period.

© Sea-Intelligence

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Carriers have scheduled blanked capacity of 90 per cent in terms of blank sailings. This is the lowest across the analysed period according to Sea-Intelligence, and in stark contrast with the 22.8 per cent blanked in 2024, and the average 2016-2019 reduction of 18.3 per cent.

To put this into perspective, the blanked percentage in 2021, where the pandemic provided a positive shock in demand, was higher at 10.7 per cent.

According to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, this would likely lead to significant announcements of blank sailings in the coming weeks under normal circumstances, as carriers are unlikely to tolerate this level of excess capacity. This scenario would mirror the events of 2023 and 2024 when substantial capacity reductions were implemented shortly before the CNY.

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“However, there is also a potential unknown: the phase-in of the new networks by MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance,” explained Murphy.

“This introduces an uncertainty, whereby the carriers might prioritise getting their vessels phased into the new networks, at the expense of not blanking as much capacity as usual.”

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